We’ve
been a little iffy about recommending a majority of the IPO’s to hit the Indian
market in the past few months. As far as the power companies went, there wasn’t
anything that interested us apart from maybe Indiabulls Power but even that was
something you could have dealt with in the secondary market. This week saw the
successful listing of Jubilant FoodWorks, better known as the company that runs
and markets the pizza chain Domino’s Pizza in India. Now that Jubilant has listed,
the IPO is a success and the rest will run from the secondary market, looking
at the prospects of this company, TIS recommends a buy on Jubilant FoodWorks
from a long term investor’s point of view.
The
joke doing the rounds since yesterday is quite cheeky! It goes “Du-bai or not Du-bai that is the question”.
Ha! Quite tongue in cheekish but appropriate all the same. When the markets
open this week that’s the first question that traders and investors the world
over have to answer. In a previous article posted this month titled ‘Signs
Of A Correction’ , I remember ending that post with these words and
I quote straight from the article “A correction around this time is likely to
be a drawn out one. Price wise and time wise unless of course some big event
casts its shadow and spooks the market leading to a tremendous fall.”
The
events related to Dubai and the news that comes out of there this week has the
potential to be that ‘Big event which
spooks the market’. It’s something that can shift the Indian market from
the current bullish gear to a selling, fear driven frenzy.
In
the past few months a lot of opinions have been thrown around regarding the
rise in the world markets. Compared to last year the markets are definitely
doing better. In India the rise has been phenomenal. From March we’ve been on a
very welcome Bull run. The question which has been asked for quite a while now
has been “When Is This Going to End?”
,there are some traders who are ripping their hair out unable to understand
what exactly is going on, according to many this is a level that both the Sensex
and the Nifty should not be able to sustain.
The
first impression that you might receive upon reading the title of this post
would be that the writer is trying to suggest that the Indian markets are headed
or heading towards a correction. A dip in the indices which have for the last
six months or so stayed positively in the green are now going down into the red
zone. Let me categorically say that I am not suggesting that a correction is
imminent or anything like that. However based on the movement of the markets
during the past few trading sessions, there is evidence to suggest that we
might be moving towards a correction in the medium term.
Firstly,
on behalf of theindiastreet.com I
would like to wish all our readers a very happy and fun filled Diwali. We hope
that the Festival of Lights and the Goddess of wealth help you to prosper and
be a part of the growth that the Indian economy is witnessing.
A
year ago at around the same time, I remember posting an article titled ‘A Dull
Diwali Sets In’. Looking back at the Diwali of 2008, the constant
theme of pessimism, the calamitous overtones of the world economy and the
future of the Indian markets had seriously bummed out the millions of Indian investors.
Some of the Traders on Dalal Street were not even in a half decent mood to
light a firecracker during Diwali.
What
a difference a year can make! The
fireworks have exploded on the Sensex and the Nifty. The most hearty thing
to see that the same people who were so depressed and unhappy last year are a
lot more optimistic and smiling. Definitely Samvat 2066 looks a lot happier
than Samvat 2065.
There’s
a famous quote known as Merkin’s Maxim which states “When In Doubt, Predict That The
Trend Will Continue”. India’s Market Indices definitely seem to be
following this Maxim. During the past few trading sessions the Sensex has
breached the 17,000 level and the Nifty has also broken Five Thousand. While
they have fallen back into the sub 17k level and sub 5k level respectively. The
two psychological levels have become real factors. There is however a lot of
doubt floating around in the market, it seems to have become the most important
psychological determinant of trade in this particular range and period.Movement in the present range has become a two way street.
At
16,741 the Sensex lies sixty points away from hitting sixteen thousand eight hundred.
We are likely to see 16,800 sometime tomorrow. The level could have been easily
breached today but no trading took place on the BSE since the markets were
closed on account of Eid. The rally on the Indian markets has been tremendous
since the month of May. Even September so far has not spooked the markets. More
importantly we are a few sessions away from reaching the 17K level.
The
rapid rise of the Sensex has been baffling but no one should complain because a
Bull Run is a good thing.
When the markets open next,we’ll be a day away from
a brand new month of trades and investments. September is usually but not
strictly the month when market indices start to head south. A lot of selling
activity takes place during this month. This is a historic trend. To see how
the market behaves at a time when the news of late has been much better than before,
with the recession receding and all that , will be interesting to observe.
Many of the fund managers and market analysts I’ve
heard from seem to agree that at the current levels the Sensex and the Nifty
will find it hard to maintain. So are we then heading towards a correction?
A
week which began with a flurry of selling activity has ended today on a not so
bad albeit somber note. The
last day of the trading week saw the Sensex fall by 106 points. Not a
shabby effort especially since we saw the Sensex close beautifully yesterday
with a 498 point push. The Sixteen Thousand Level is the next significant
barrier to break from the bull side but caution has been the dominant sentiment
for the past fortnight on the markets. This is setting up the stage for the
market indices to become range bound in the coming week because neither the
bull side nor the bear side wants to make the first move.
In
view of this situation here are a few stocks that have seen significant
movement during the short term and are volume stocks which are bull and bear
friendly in the coming week.
A three day losing streak was broken today with the
Sensex ending a slight inch ahead of the 15,000 mark. The flat closing is indicative
of both bullish patterns and bear trends dominating the market. The bear phase
we saw for most of last year and much of this year has eased significantly
since the middle of March. The American economy too seems to be doing a lot better;
I mean that in a market sense not in the overall scheme of things though
unemployment figures have thankfully reduced. The Dow Jones has started to
reflect money once again coming back into the equity markets.
The Indian case is similar except that the volume
of shares being traded and the ease with which money is flowing through the Sensex
is much more comfortable because India continues to be seen as a good
investment destination.
There’s
a famous quote known as Merkin’s Maxim which states “When In Doubt, Predict That The
Trend Will Continue”. India’s Market Indices definitely seem to be
following this Maxim. During the past few trading sessions the Sensex has
breached the 17,000 level and the Nifty has also broken Five Thousand. While
they have fallen back into the sub 17k level and sub 5k level respectively. The
two psychological levels have become real factors. There is however a lot of
doubt floating around in the market, it seems to have become the most important
psychological determinant of trade in this particular range and period.Movement in the present range has become a two way street. 
